The decision-making processes of experts produce the right decisions
80 to 90+ percent of the time.

Experts’ decision-making processes are well organized and extremely efficient. 

This diagram shows a schematic of an expert’s typical decision-making process.  Experts in most field use same three activities, but unless their expertise is in the same domain, everything that happens in the 100+ interactive mental steps is different. 

Fast thinking, which we call the 10-second exam, is automatic unconscious thinking.  The key to thinking and performing like an expert is to gather and correctly use the right non-digital data to formulate two to seven preliminary decisions in under 10 seconds

Once the preliminary decisions are identified, experts use slow thinking to focus on gathering the right data from observations, conversations, analytics, reports, etc. and correctly using that data to gauge the accuracy and rule-out or question those preliminary decisions that do not fit with the data.

In the last activity, experts test the few remaining preliminary decisions and use the test results to confirm their final decision and the rule-out the others.

In contrast, non-experts often use convoluted, complex and inefficient decision-making processes that are biased and contain inferior thinking.  Some non-experts formulate a single preliminary decision and consider it final without determining its accuracy or testing it. 

Other non-experts formulate preliminary decisions that do not include the correct decision.  This causes the wrong data to be gathered and leads to the wrong tests and decision. 

Many non-experts as well as novices do not formulate preliminary decisions at all.  Instead, they gather as much data as possible, rule-in every possibility and then either test all the possibilities or just pick one without confirming that it is correct.  The methods used by non-experts and novices can be expensive, time consuming and lead to the wrong decision 50-70% of the time.  …More